Un sondage éclair donne le poul des boursicoteurs Américains en ce début d'Année.
( What are your predictions for 2012? Which way will stocks go? What about oil and gold? What will happen with the eurozone crisis, or U.S. unemployment? Any under-the-radar stocks or ETFs worth keeping an eye on? )
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It is going to be a “great year”! Even though there will be slight improvement in Europe, Americans are sick of hearing about European problems, and will once again focus on the home front. This will lift sprits and markets will rise. The economic outlook in this country is not that bad, at least as bad as the “talking heads” try to report it for the sake of having something to say in front of the cameras. “People are spending money, and enjoying life.”
Energy will lead the way, with natural gas production coming into the forefront; Chesapeake Energy has a foothold in all energy positions such as land, production, and transport.
Everyday use stocks such as coffee will rise due to daily usage companies like Coffee holding Company , Starbucks and Caribou will be a profitable venture for both long & short positions.
Energy will lead the way, with natural gas production coming into the forefront; Chesapeake Energy has a foothold in all energy positions such as land, production, and transport.
Everyday use stocks such as coffee will rise due to daily usage companies like Coffee holding Company , Starbucks and Caribou will be a profitable venture for both long & short positions.
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Very bad. 2008H2 replay in 2012H1.
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I don't know but prepare for some major mayhems, both up and down.
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My "guess" is the market finishes higher in 2012, I believe the economy is improving slowly and will continue to do so, get Europe out of the news the US market moves higher.
Energy will be a good sector next year, although natural gas prices will remain low in the US. Oil goes higher for multiple reasons, geo-political risks (Iran) and improving world economies. I have felt gold has been in a bubble for over a year, so I don't see it going higher.
I am a slow and steady investor so I don't have any "hot" stock picks, I will stick with my MCD, KO and others.
Obama will be re-elected in a very close race, mostly due to the Republicans not having a strong candidate. Republicans maintain control of the House and the Senate becomes split 50/50.
Energy will be a good sector next year, although natural gas prices will remain low in the US. Oil goes higher for multiple reasons, geo-political risks (Iran) and improving world economies. I have felt gold has been in a bubble for over a year, so I don't see it going higher.
I am a slow and steady investor so I don't have any "hot" stock picks, I will stick with my MCD, KO and others.
Obama will be re-elected in a very close race, mostly due to the Republicans not having a strong candidate. Republicans maintain control of the House and the Senate becomes split 50/50.
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My guess is:
- another volatile year for stocks. I think SPX will finish 2012 flat or a little higher
- gold at $2000, oil at $120
- European problem not solved, only temporarily patched up
- another volatile year for stocks. I think SPX will finish 2012 flat or a little higher
- gold at $2000, oil at $120
- European problem not solved, only temporarily patched up
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US 10 year end up at 3.25%
S&P 500 ends the year flat at 1250
Apple over $500/share at some point in 2012
Euro stabilizes at 1.20 as they will be forced to print even more than the US.
At least one financial system stability scare related to China
Precious metals have a strong year
Oil at $120
Natural Gas rebounds to $5/MMcf as increased demand / reduced drilling drives up prices into the 2013 heating season.
S&P 500 ends the year flat at 1250
Apple over $500/share at some point in 2012
Euro stabilizes at 1.20 as they will be forced to print even more than the US.
At least one financial system stability scare related to China
Precious metals have a strong year
Oil at $120
Natural Gas rebounds to $5/MMcf as increased demand / reduced drilling drives up prices into the 2013 heating season.
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S&P up 10-12%. Stocks are undervalued in comparison to interest rates and bonds. I would look at industrials like dow, financials like axp, defense names like noc and stable companies like pg, pm, duk ,kand finally spice some things up with some shares of nintendo
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In the first half of 2012, the US economy continues to improve, leading to declining unemployment, and German and French politicians refuse to let Europe implode. As a result, US stocks climb a wall of worry. Mega caps, the cheapest stocks in the market, outperform small caps, and dividend-payers outperform non-dividend-payers as growing numbers of retirees look for yield.
In the back half of 2012 or H1 2013, concerns grow about the longer term economic outlook, due to demographics and rising taxes and spending cuts as governments strive to improve their balance sheets. Capital gains taxes rise, and there's even discussion about raising taxes on dividends, although that's highly unpopular with retirees. With the economic recovery priced-in, those concerns lead to a market pull-back in the back half of 2012 or H1 2013.
The Fed keeps rates low throughout 2012, so there's no real movement in bond prices, leading to weak total returns. With no sign of inflation, gold goes nowhere.
Within an overall market, contrarian, deep-value stocks like the defense names General Dynamics , Lockheed Martin , Northrup Grumman and Raytheon do best.
In the back half of 2012 or H1 2013, concerns grow about the longer term economic outlook, due to demographics and rising taxes and spending cuts as governments strive to improve their balance sheets. Capital gains taxes rise, and there's even discussion about raising taxes on dividends, although that's highly unpopular with retirees. With the economic recovery priced-in, those concerns lead to a market pull-back in the back half of 2012 or H1 2013.
The Fed keeps rates low throughout 2012, so there's no real movement in bond prices, leading to weak total returns. With no sign of inflation, gold goes nowhere.
Within an overall market, contrarian, deep-value stocks like the defense names General Dynamics , Lockheed Martin , Northrup Grumman and Raytheon do best.
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