Barclays Capital’s Ben Reitzes this morning offers some thoughts on the purported Apple television set, reflecting on the apparent disclosure by retailer Best Buy of a “hypothetical” Apple set, as was related by The Verge’s Chris Ziegler.
Reitzes notes the Consumer Electronics Association is forecasting growth of 3.7% this year in consumer electronics global revenue, to $202.4 billion. It seems like the growth is coming from areas dominated by Apple, he observes.
As for the living room, it’s weak, based on CEA data, notes Reitzes, and that could change with an Apple television set.
“On the other hand, the CEA anticipates that In-Home Communications, Portable Entertainment, Digital Imaging and TVs and Displays will be the weakest performing sectors. We believe Apple is helping disrupt these sectors.”
Reitzes thinks Apple is focusing more right now on content partnerships, meaning, how to get them, than on the production this year of the set.
But he also does a back-of-the-envelope on what the profit math might be:
Apple’s eventual television could be so much more than a TV – including gaming, video communication, content delivery, Apps, computing and all the capabilities of the current Apple TV – it is really not fair to compare it to products already on the market. However, for the sake of argument, according to our calculations, the LCD-TV market could reach about 230 million units in CY2012. If one were to assume Apple could get 5% share of this market over time, with an ASP of $1,500, the new segment would add over $17 billion in revenue or almost 10% of our FY13 estimate of $183.1 billion. Assuming a gross margin of about 40%, the incremental margin dollars could contribute about $5.40 of EPS or 11% of our FY13 EPS estimate of $48.46. For more information, see our report published October 24, 2011 titled: Is Apple Finally Ready for a TV?
Reitzes reiterates an Overweight rating on shares of Apple and a $630 price target.
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