mercredi 11 janvier 2012

Le temps d'un " average down " pour moi...


There are 433 operable reactors globally and 62 under construction around the world, according to the WNA. China is building 26, plans to construct another 51 and has proposed 120 others, the WNA data show. Developing nations are adding nuclear capacity to meet growing electricity demand and to diversify away from power generated from oil, gas and coal.

It will be full steam ahead in China, India and other developing nations, says Casey Research Chairman Doug Casey, and the Western world is tiny in comparison. In fact, "I'd say uranium is a great place to be for at least the next generation."

Though the underlying investment trends for the 2011 uranium market were directly impacted by the nuclear tragedy at Fukushima in March, Gavin Wendt, Founding Director & Senior Resource Analyst at MineLife foresees a longer term bullish uranium investment thesis. “From a broader perspective, the history of the past 30 years in the uranium industry with respect to previous incidents at Three Mile Island in the USA and Chernobyl in the Ukraine demonstrated that base demand did not fall, as existing reactors in use worldwide were not shut down.”

In a recent interview Cameco Corp’s CEO Tim Gitzel said some investors underestimate the potential for supply shortfalls to spur higher prices for the nuclear fuel. From the article in Bloomberg:

Global mined uranium supply was 53,663 tons in 2010, according to the World Nuclear Association. That’s not enough to cover global demand, and so some utilities also use fuel recovered from Russian warheads under the Highly Enriched Uraniumagreement, which has run since the 1990s.

Gitzel said Russia will withdraw from the HEU accord by the end of 2013, removing 24 million pounds of supply. “There’s a lot, and I spoke to some of them this week, who think the HEU agreement is still going to be around,” Gitzel said. “We don’t.”

Although Germany plans to phase out nuclear power, there will be a net 93 new reactors by the end of the decade, Gitzel said. That compares with Cameco’s projection prior to the Japanese earthquake and tsunami of as many as 104, he said.

As evidenced by the developing world’s plans to expand nuclear energy capabilities, uranium will remain a key component of the global energy bull market. Valuations of companies in the sector are depressed because of a unique event. It was a tragic event but the world’s nuclear initiatives are moving forward and I believe we will one day look back at this selloff as a historic buying opportunity. I am actively accumulating shares in Cameco and Denison Mines .

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